Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2200 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 08 2025 20:11:56 ACUS11 KWNS 082011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082011=20 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-082215- Mesoscale Discussion 2200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Georgia...northern and central South Carolina into far southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 082011Z - 082215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along a broad frontal zone from northern GA into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening. Increasingly strong vertical shear could support a few supercells with damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two. A WW is possible though very uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2005 UTC, afternoon satellite and radar imagery showed a few showers and initial thunderstorms slowly developing near the broad frontal zone across northern GA and far western SC. South of the front, a moist and fairly warm air mass was supporting moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear profiles favorable for some storm organization. While so far, development has been slow, owing to modest mid-level lapse rates and forcing, continued low-level convergence ahead of a weak frontal wave should allow for gradual storm intensification of this convection over the next few hours. With cold temperatures aloft and sufficient CAPE/shear for organized storms, a few clusters and perhaps supercells are possible. Hail and some damaging gusts would be the most likely threats, especially with any stronger rotating storms. Any tornado risk is likely to be maximized along an advancing warm front where weak pressure falls and backed low-level flow are helping to enhance low-level hodographs. Farther east, low-level warm air advection near the warm front was supporting additional isolated storms over eastern SC. While overall forcing for ascent is rather nebulous, buoyant and uncapped profiles may continue to support isolated storm development this afternoon and evening. Backed low-level flow near the front could allow for some storm organization, though confidence in sustained stronger storms is low. Confidence in the overall convective evolution is low. A conditional risk for more intense supercells is apparent given the background kinematic fields overlapped with fairly robust moisture/buoyancy for November. However, the lack of stronger forcing and slow evolution casts some uncertainty on peak intensity. Observational trends will be watched closely this afternoon to evaluate the need for a small WW should more intense supercells evolve. ...Lyons/Smith.. 11/08/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-7o_an10Glb5aE5Q3qHLifmE5Ou43mM86GaVFFn56Nz3gI9QIKoq_l2roxJm4PsIo-JrUcj0V= K19xP0AEg6igJ4anlA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34758378 35108252 35138104 34977972 34627901 33727903 33307942 33238027 33498097 33588385 33708472 33878456 34208438 34758378=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .