Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 08 2025 00:48:19

ACUS01 KWNS 080048
SWODY1
SPC AC 080046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
A severe threat will likely continue this evening from middle
Tennessee southward into northern Mississippi, where isolated
damaging wind gusts, a tornado and hail will be possible.

....Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude mid-level
trough over the mid Mississippi Valley. A plume of mid-level
moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley northeastward into the
central Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the
southwestern part of this plume from eastern Kentucky southward into
middle Tennessee. The storms are located ahead of pre-frontal
trough, along a northeast-to-southwest moist axis where surface
dewpoints range from the mid 50s in Kentucky to the lower to mid 60s
F in middle Tennessee. The RAP has a pocket of instability along
this moist axis, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. In addition, the
Morristown, Tennessee WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 60 knots with 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This will support
supercells, and potentially an isolated tornado threat early this
evening. Steep lapse rates at low-levels could also support a
wind-damage threat...see MCD 2199. The severe threat is expected to
persist for a few more hours, as the storms gradually move eastward
toward the southern Appalachians.

Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F are contributing to moderate instability.
The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from north-central
Alabama southward to the central Gulf Coast. Within this corridor,
the RAP shows moderate deep-layer shear, and relatively steep
low-level lapse rates. This could be sufficient for a marginal
severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be the primary
threats. The threat could persist into the early overnight period.

...Broyles.. 11/08/2025

$$

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