Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 08 2025 00:44:33 FOUS30 KWBC 080044 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 744 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sat Nov 08 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025 01Z Update.... Recent MRMS data has shown some pockets of heavier rates (1-1.5 in/hr) over the past couple of hours, especially within a small=20 segment of training storms across Middle Tennessee. But overall,=20 storms have been progressive as expected - limiting the threat for=20 heavy accumulations and flash flooding. Even within the pockets of=20 heavier rates, accumulations have remained well below FFGs. As=20 these storms continue to move east, expect rates to come down over the next few hours as they move into a less unstable airmass over=20 eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. Pereira Previous Discussion... Thunderstorms are expected to move into=20 Kentucky and Tennessee ahead of a cold front later today into early tonight. Precipitable water values are forecast to be modestly=20 anomalous for early November (+1 to +2 standardized anomalies) and=20 forecast MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg combined with sufficient vertical=20 shear will allow for a few organized cells with stronger rainfall=20 intensities. Some brief training from WSW to ENE will be possible which could produce 1 to locally 2+ inches of rain in a short period of time, however, the front should remain progressive enough to limit the potential for flash flooding. The potential for exceeding some of the lower flash flood guidance over central/eastern Kentucky/Tennessee (1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours) is low enough to state that the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Otto Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 09 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Chenard Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 10 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Chenard Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt= __;!!DZ3fjg!99JwwSZFIcDjZXZxmjRb--J3YNjcaeJVfZPl1PCm9d_dpADGHI2gObCBISvxCUT= cikHSPMncwYWnvsVobhE3f7aDjnk$ Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt= __;!!DZ3fjg!99JwwSZFIcDjZXZxmjRb--J3YNjcaeJVfZPl1PCm9d_dpADGHI2gObCBISvxCUT= cikHSPMncwYWnvsVobhE3AT8qhK0$ Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt= __;!!DZ3fjg!99JwwSZFIcDjZXZxmjRb--J3YNjcaeJVfZPl1PCm9d_dpADGHI2gObCBISvxCUT= cikHSPMncwYWnvsVobhE3OoqhWxM$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .