Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 07 2025 18:16:49

FOUS30 KWBC 071816
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
116 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Nov 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025

Thunderstorms are expected to move into Kentucky and Tennessee
ahead of a cold front later today into early tonight. Precipitable
water values are forecast to be modestly anomalous for early
November (+1 to +2 standardized anomalies) and forecast MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg combined with sufficient vertical shear will allow
for a few organized cells with stronger rainfall intensities.

Some brief training from WSW to ENE will be possible which could
produce 1 to locally 2+ inches of rain in a short period of time,
however, the front should remain progressive enough to limit the
potential for flash flooding. The potential for exceeding some of
the lower flash flood guidance over central/eastern
Kentucky/Tennessee (1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours) is low enough to
state that the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance is less than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 09 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 10 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Chenard


Day 1 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt=
__;!!DZ3fjg!74IX_3275Xm3tzQrv9QJmkHLFsw6C-l5vp9TP9ify_mozPGud2Zqk8qYXJjWtN2=
t1S-P7ha4AsrnuYuilZ0ESHbLW4o$  Day 2 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt=
__;!!DZ3fjg!74IX_3275Xm3tzQrv9QJmkHLFsw6C-l5vp9TP9ify_mozPGud2Zqk8qYXJjWtN2=
t1S-P7ha4AsrnuYuilZ0E8rdgZGc$  Day 3 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt=
__;!!DZ3fjg!74IX_3275Xm3tzQrv9QJmkHLFsw6C-l5vp9TP9ify_mozPGud2Zqk8qYXJjWtN2=
t1S-P7ha4AsrnuYuilZ0ES9m97UU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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