Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 07 2025 15:58:07

FOUS30 KWBC 071557
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Nov 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025

Thunderstorms are expected to move into Kentucky and Tennessee
ahead of a cold front later today into early tonight. Precipitable
water values are forecast to be modestly anomalous for early=20
November (+1 to +2 standardized anomalies) and forecast MLCAPE of=20
500-1500 J/kg combined with sufficient vertical shear will allow=20
for a few organized cells with stronger rainfall intensities.=20

Some brief training from WSW to ENE will be possible which could=20
produce 1 to locally 2+ inches of rain in a short period of time,=20
however, the front should remain progressive enough to limit the=20
potential for flash flooding. The potential for exceeding some of=20
the lower flash flood guidance over central/eastern=20
Kentucky/Tennessee (1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours) is low enough to=20
state that the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood=20
guidance is less than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 09 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 10 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 1 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt=
__;!!DZ3fjg!-OaWS8YAIBpEI5H7rbZ3Jrc7dWbQtvuQPF6sx70jyQTVGkSoydPBrbb0NybTJ-Y=
lNL8eJiyl-hOkj-6AmAOyh-W6nic$  Day 2 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt=
__;!!DZ3fjg!-OaWS8YAIBpEI5H7rbZ3Jrc7dWbQtvuQPF6sx70jyQTVGkSoydPBrbb0NybTJ-Y=
lNL8eJiyl-hOkj-6AmAOyZXA7_dk$  Day 3 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt=
__;!!DZ3fjg!-OaWS8YAIBpEI5H7rbZ3Jrc7dWbQtvuQPF6sx70jyQTVGkSoydPBrbb0NybTJ-Y=
lNL8eJiyl-hOkj-6AmAOyZxd6cjg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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