Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 06 2025 15:48:07 FOUS30 KWBC 061547 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1047 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 06 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 07 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, AS WELL AS THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... 12z Guidance (including Hi-Res CAMs) remain on track for placement/timing of the next surge of enhanced rainfall. Sub-990mb low pressure continues to translate quickly through the Southeast Gulf of AK toward N British Columbia with triple point pressing toward and through W Washington between 21-00z. The amplification of the warm sector will allow for a quick surge of enhanced moisture flux from the southwest into the Olympic Range with IVT peaking near 700-800 kg/m/s. This will bring the bulk of highest rates across the areas solid potential of up to .5"/hr rates for at least a few hours. Totals of 2-4" remain. Given upper soil conditions (0-40cm per NASA SPoRT) are nearing 90%, much can run off and localized flooding concerns remain within typical river basins. Further south into the boreal rainforest in SW OR/NW CA, as the=20 cold front presses eastward from 21-03z, peak IVT values are near=20 500-600 kg/m/s but quickly diminish as deep layer flow becomes=20 more zonal allowing for increased duration of light to moderate=20 rainfall. IVT values will reduce toward 200-300 kg/m/s through the=20 remainder of the Day 1 period. Additional 1-2.5" totals are=20 plausible and like northward, the soils are saturating resulting in increased runoff.=20 As such, no adjustments were made to the two Marginal Risk areas.=20 Gallina Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Mullinax Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 09 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Mullinax Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7XzhlrLuDOZQVV27SM0N7absN_aVyD4440Wc1JFNlJSY= u2wQIizlbsSuKvkY2ckzucjpSvN0ZpQVODRG9AxzxFumeAA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7XzhlrLuDOZQVV27SM0N7absN_aVyD4440Wc1JFNlJSY= u2wQIizlbsSuKvkY2ckzucjpSvN0ZpQVODRG9AxzT0OtoEs$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7XzhlrLuDOZQVV27SM0N7absN_aVyD4440Wc1JFNlJSY= u2wQIizlbsSuKvkY2ckzucjpSvN0ZpQVODRG9AxzwzetVps$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .