Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 06 2025 12:44:37

ACUS01 KWNS 061244
SWODY1
SPC AC 061243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

....Discussion...
A progressive large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, which
will include modestly amplifying shortwave troughs tonight/early
Friday over the Pacific Northwest as well as the Upper Midwest.
Steepening lapse rates and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a
few thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon
into evening, as a strong mid-level jet approaches the coastal
Pacific Northwest and as a cold front moves inland.

Across the Midwest, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop as
low-level warm advection strengthens ahead of a cold front and
amplifying shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest parcels
lifted near 850mb may yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with
scattered elevated convection expected primarily during the
overnight hours, potentially spanning southeast Iowa and northern
portions of Missouri/Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan.

A low-latitude disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern
Gulf Basin toward south Florida late in the period. This feature
should encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south
Florida Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.

...Guyer/Kerr.. 11/06/2025

$$

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