Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 06 2025 09:20:37

ACUS48 KWNS 060920
SWOD48
SPC AC 060918

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Focus for severe potential is on D4/Sunday along the eastern Gulf
and south Atlantic Coastal Plain. Major amplification of the eastern
CONUS upper trough that commences on D3/Saturday will persist
through Sunday. Attendant surface cyclone should track from the
Lower Great Lakes towards coastal southern New England through
Sunday night. Extending southward from this low, a cold front will
push east across the Southeast and largely offshore outside of the
FL Peninsula. While the bulk of deep-layer flow amplification will
be behind the front, strong deep-layer shear should be present
along/ahead of it with at least weak buoyancy. Some guidance has
trended upward with the degree of convective coverage, while others
indicate a fairly dry frontal passage in this region amid low
RH/weak lapse rates in the mid-levels. At this juncture, severe
probabilities appear to be at least 5 but less than 15 percent.

With a very amplified trough east/ridge west by D5/Monday and a
continental airmass overspreading much of the Gulf, severe potential
should be minimal early to middle next week.

...Grams.. 11/06/2025

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