Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 06 2025 00:55:05

ACUS01 KWNS 060055
SWODY1
SPC AC 060053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong-severe gusts are possible along the western Oregon and
far northern California coastal region early this evening. Strong to
locally severe gusts may also accompany shallow convection that
develops over parts of the Northeast.

....01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough
advancing inland along the Pacific Coast. 00z soundings at MFR and
SLE exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE within a strongly sheared
environment. Latest radar data supports this with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into western WA. A few
strong-severe gusts remain possible with this convection for the
next few hours, then large-scale support will spread into the
northern inter mountain region and convection should weaken.

Strong 500mb speed max is digging into the upper OH valley early
this evening. This feature will increase in excess of 120kt over the
next several hours as it translates across western PA and off the
southern New England Coast late tonight. Intense 12hr 500mb height
falls are spreading across New England and this will encourage
strong, shallow frontal convection. Scattered shallow convection has
developed along the boundary from southwest PA-southern Hudson
Valley. This activity will spread east along the surging cold front.
00z soundings ahead of the boundary do not support lightning, but
destabilizing near the wind shift is weakly supportive of updrafts
perhaps penetrating levels necessary for lightning.

...Darrow.. 11/06/2025

$$

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