Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 05 2025 07:57:29 ACUS03 KWNS 050757 SWODY3 SPC AC 050756 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Friday afternoon to evening, from parts of the Deep South to the Ohio Valley. ....Synopsis... A broad mid/upper trough, consisting of several embedded shortwave impulses, will be maintained across the Northwest to the East on Friday. Primary feature of interest will be the southernmost shortwave impulse, progressing east across the Lower MO and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cyclone over the northern Great Lakes will move into QC. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward, impinging on the Lower Great Lakes to Mid-South by late afternoon. ....Deep South to OH Valley... Modified moisture return from the south-central Gulf should yield a plume of moderate buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley by Friday afternoon, with progressively weaker buoyancy extending northeast ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday in parts of the Midwest within the low-level warm conveyor. This activity will probably persist through the day amid pronounced mid-level height falls. Whether this can become surface based into the OH Valley vicinity, along the periphery of the aforementioned buoyancy plume, is uncertain. Despite potentially meager instability at most, expected fast low to mid-level flow will be sufficient to warrant low severe probabilities. Farther south, more probable severe-storm development appears to be centered from south-central KY across the TN Valley. This corridor should have a better opportunity for weak to modest destabilization, where strong deep-layer shear and hodographs would favor supercells. Consensus of non-NAM guidance is insistent on late afternoon to early evening convective development along/ahead of this portion of the front, which appears sufficient to warrant a level 2-SLGT risk highlight. How intense and widespread the severe threat may become will largely depend on the degree of destabilization early. Subsiding large-scale ascent from southwest to northeast on Friday night casts low confidence in the longevity of lingering severe. ...Grams.. 11/05/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .