Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 04 2025 00:43:52

ACUS01 KWNS 040043
SWODY1
SPC AC 040042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected tonight.

....Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and accompanying 110+ kt 500 mb jet
max will continue to rapidly progress over the Northeast through
tonight. Cooler temperatures above the boundary layer are
contributing to near 8 C/km low- to mid-level lapse rates, resulting
in marginal (but adequate) buoyancy to support low-topped
thunderstorm development (per the 00Z BUF observed sounding). This
sounding also shows 50+ kt west-northwesterly flow just above the
boundary layer, and strengthening further with height, resulting in
elongated hodographs. It is not out of the question that some of the
deeper convective cells may produce a few strong wind gusts over the
next couple of hours, before the boundary layer stabilizes.

...Squitieri.. 11/04/2025

$$

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