Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 03 2025 05:52:45

ACUS01 KWNS 030552
SWODY1
SPC AC 030551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Northeast as more zonal
flow becomes established across the western and central CONUS today.
A broad and pronounced surface trough will accompany the upper-level
wave, and will quickly overspread the Northeast through the day as
surface high pressure meanders over the MS Valley and the Southeast.
Static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most of
the CONUS. The one exception may be portions of New England, where
just enough boundary-layer mixing may occur to foster adequate
buoyancy (albeit scant) for low-topped convection. It is unclear if
this convection will become deep enough to support lightning.

....New England this afternoon and evening...
A 110+ kt 500 mb jet max will rapidly approach New England during
the passage of the aforementioned surface trough. Along the trough,
enough lift via low-level confluence will encourage the development
of a line of showers. Showers may also develop over Lake Ontario and
move ashore given steep low-level lapse rates beneath cool
temperatures aloft. Some forecast soundings show minuscule boundary
layer buoyancy ahead of and behind the surface trough. Should this
occur, some of the showers could develop low-topped convective
characteristics. At the moment, confidence in organized thunderstorm
development is not overly high. However, if any convection that
develops manages to acquire appreciable vertical depth, 45-60 kts of
800-600 mb flow may encourage the downward momentum transport of
potentially strong wind gusts. Given the low confidence in organized
thunderstorm development though, the risk of 50+ kt thunderstorm
wind gusts appears too small to warrant either thunder or severe
probabilities at this time.

...Squitieri/Wendt.. 11/03/2025

$$

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