Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 02 2025 00:37:06

ACUS01 KWNS 020037
SWODY1
SPC AC 020035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and locally damaging winds remain possible this evening
across portions of south Texas.

....01z Update...

Weak short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the south TX
Coast early this evening. As this feature continues to dig
southeast, coastal boundary and deeper convergence will shift
offshore over the next few hours. Cooling midlevel temperatures and
steepening lapse rates have aided buoyancy across this portion of TX
and scattered robust convection has matured ahead of the short wave.
00z sounding from BRO exhibits roughly 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but a
notable warm layer is observed near 3km. Midlevel cooling should
dampen this warm layer and profiles will remain favorable for robust
deep convection through 06-08z across deep South TX. Latest radar
data suggests several supercell structures are digging toward the
coast, with a few likely generating severe hail in excess of golf
ball size. Greatest risk for severe will be prior to 06z before the
short wave encourages deep convection to focus offshore.

...Darrow.. 11/02/2025

$$

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