Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 31 2025 00:24:49

ACUS01 KWNS 310024
SWODY1
SPC AC 310023

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the northern Middle
Atlantic tonight.

....01z Update...

Upper low is currently lifting north-northeast across western PA as
strong midlevel jet translates toward southern New England. Exit
region of this feature will encourage weak elevated convection
across the northern Middle Atlantic, primarily this evening, where
weak buoyancy appears adequate for a few flashes of lightning within
the deepest updrafts. 00z analysis supports this with a narrow
corridor of 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE extending across NJ. While weak
elevated convection may develop farther north into portions of
VT/NH, instability will likely prove too meager to warrant 10%
thunder probabilities.

...Darrow.. 10/31/2025

$$

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