Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 30 2025 05:21:43

ACUS01 KWNS 300521
SWODY1
SPC AC 300520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

....Middle Atlantic...

Seasonally strong upper low over eastern TN is beginning to eject
northeast, partly in response to an upstream speed max digging
southeast across the northern High Plains. This lead low will
advance into WV by 18z before moving into upstate NY by the end of
the period. Favorable high-level diffluence/large-scale ascent will
encourage a surface low to be drawn north-northwest across the
Middle Atlantic to a position near the MD/PA border by mid day. This
track will permit higher theta-e air mass to overspread eastern
VA/Delmarva into southeast PA such that buoyancy will become
supportive of deep convection.

Early-day shear will prove strongest across the Middle Atlantic as
LLJ will be focused across eastern MD into central PA. LLJ will
shift quickly north into NY by 18z along with more focused low-level
warm advection. Prior to this, forecast soundings exhibit strongly
sheared environment with adequate instability for thunderstorms.
While the maximum SBCAPE should peak near 500-600 J/kg, a few robust
updrafts are possible given the strength of the wind fields.
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms, possibly supercells, may
generate damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Greatest risk
is between sunrise and 21z.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 10/30/2025

$$

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