Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 29 2025 19:54:12

ACUS01 KWNS 291954
SWODY1
SPC AC 291952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest surface observations across the NC Tidewater region show
winds becoming more easterly with dewpoints rising as moisture is
slowly advected inland. This trend should continue through tonight
and help promote buoyancy late tonight/early Thursday morning as the
surface cyclone (currently over eastern TN) shifts northeast. See
the previous discussion for additional details.

...Moore.. 10/29/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025/

....Eastern NC/VA Tidewater region tonight...
No changes to the previous outlook.  A deep midlevel trough and
associated 100+ kt midlevel jet will progress from the MS Valley
this morning to the TN Valley this evening and the southern
Appalachians overnight.  Surface cyclogenesis in association with
this trough will help draw the (currently offshore) moist sector
inland across eastern NC and the VA Tidewater region by tonight.
Surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F and dewpoints increase
into the mid-upper 60s, which will be sufficient for weak buoyancy
rooted near the surface.  Hodograph length/curvature will favor some
potential for rotating storms, with a low-end wind damage and/or
tornado threat.

$$

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