Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 29 2025 07:58:10

ACUS48 KWNS 290758
SWOD48
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential generally appears low
through the extended range, with dry and stable conditions expected
to prevail across most of the CONUS into at least early next week.

On D4/Saturday, a mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over
the central/southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some modest
low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of south TX
and the TX Gulf Coast during the day, in advance of a reinforcing
cold front. The GFS remains the most aggressive regarding prefrontal
destabilization, with other deterministic and ensemble guidance
depicting weaker instability, and a tendency for any storm
development to be primarily anafrontal.

For D5/Sunday and beyond, predictability decreases with time
regarding whether the mid/upper-level trough will remain progressive
as it moves across the Southeast, or if a deep mid/upper-level
cyclone will develop and move only slowly eastward. Most guidance
depicts limited inland moisture return and destabilization, though
the more amplified solutions could support some threat for locally
strong storms across mainly coastal regions of the Southeast into
early next week.

...Dean.. 10/29/2025

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