Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 29 2025 07:40:05 FOUS30 KWBC 290739 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 339 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE=20 SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE=20 OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... Rainfall is expected to overspread the Tennessee/Ohio Valley with anomalous low- level moisture transport driving east-southeast moisture transport into the Southern/Central Appalachians as a closed upper low swivels from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. HREF neighborhood probs for >2" are relatively high in-of the Blue=20 Ridge from Virginia down into the western Carolinas (60-90%) with a vast majority of the rain coming from shallow convective processes focused within the terrain. Large scale forcing across the=20 aforementioned areas will be the primary driver for the heavy rain=20 scenario, however a tongue of elevated theta_E is expected to=20 advect off the Atlantic into the Central Apps/Blue Ridge leading to a greater potential for that low- topped convection to impact=20 these zones. A Marginal Risk area remains in effect for this part of the nation. Campbell/Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 31 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST... This system is forecast to track to the northeast as the=20 associated surface low strengthens over the Mid-Atlantic onward to=20 the Northeast. Heavy rain will accompany the low and overspread the region. The best threat for convective enhancement leading to=20 better rates >1"/hr and some minor training off steady southeast=20 flow off the Atlantic will occur from southeast Pennsylvania up=20 through New Jersey, New York City metro, and western Long Island=20 to about the I-95 corridor in Connecticut. A Marginal Risk for=20 excessive rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns in that=20 urbanized corridor of the Northeastern U.S. remains for this=20 period. Campbell/Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 31 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 01 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN=20 WASHINGTON... Heavy precipitation is likely Friday into Saturday for portions of the Pacific Northwest as a moderately strong atmospheric river streams onshore ahead of a larger northeast Pacific low. Areal averages of 1 to 3 inches will be common with the potential for=20 local maximums of 4+ inches. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and isolated flash flooding concerns is in effect for western Washington. Most precipitation is forecast to stay rain other=20 than snow even in the highest peaks of the Olympics through Friday, with more snow in the Cascades.=20 Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9j97GRdokovxVpYxyQFJQXzAwcBQlpCgwdw5GDF_MJ-T= bOXVVB81R_CmBLTL0LUydsHGKwvud2cp6Bp7lHIGNDzPy1M$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9j97GRdokovxVpYxyQFJQXzAwcBQlpCgwdw5GDF_MJ-T= bOXVVB81R_CmBLTL0LUydsHGKwvud2cp6Bp7lHIGPfjEryE$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9j97GRdokovxVpYxyQFJQXzAwcBQlpCgwdw5GDF_MJ-T= bOXVVB81R_CmBLTL0LUydsHGKwvud2cp6Bp7lHIGYtbSgqQ$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .