Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 28 2025 19:55:04

ACUS01 KWNS 281954
SWODY1
SPC AC 281953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

....20z Update...
No updates are needed to the Day 1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorms
are developing along and ahead of the eastward moving cold front in
Texas. These are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon/evening. See MCD#2192 for more information.

...Thornton.. 10/28/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025/

....East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
An upper-level trough will move southeast, evolving into an upper
low over the central Plains today as an associated cold front moves
southeast across East TX/ArkLaTex region this afternoon and tonight.
Despite overall modest mid-level lapse rates, a corridor of 60s
surface dew points (locally higher over southeast TX), combined with
daytime heating, will contribute to MLCAPE averaging 1500-2000 J/kg
this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase in coverage this
afternoon as the cold front intersects the greater instability and
height falls provide large-scale ascent. Strengthening low/mid-level
flow with the approaching trough will result in shear profiles
supportive of organized storms including supercell structures,
evolving into clusters or linear segments this evening before
weakening late tonight. Any more sustained supercell will have some
tornado potential given favorably curved low-level hodographs,
primarily within the Slight Risk area added with this update.
Otherwise, isolated instances of severe hail or strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible.

$$

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