Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2192 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 28 2025 19:50:04 ACUS11 KWNS 281949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281949=20 LAZ000-TXZ000-282145- Mesoscale Discussion 2192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Areas affected...east Texas and west Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 281949Z - 282145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across east Texas should increase in coverage and intensity. Some tornado potential will exist with any sustained supercell thunderstorm this afternoon across the region. Conditions will be monitored for issuance of a tornado watch. DISCUSSION...A cold front with a preceding wind shift is moving east across east Texas this afternoon. Ahead of this wind shift, surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, with upper 60Fs dewpoints. As midlevel lapse rates modestly steepen through peak heating, mixed-layer CAPE values up to 2000 J/kg should develop across east Texas and far west Louisiana. Large-scale kinematic fields are also quite strong, with effective-layer shear on the order of 50-65 knots across the area. Showers and thunderstorms presently developing along the aforementioned wind shift should deepen and increase in coverage as they encounter the increasing instability. Given the forecast degree of instability and the overall deep-layer shear profile, supercells will be possible with any discrete storms. With time, increasing forced ascent from the eastward moving cold front should promote upscale growth into one or more linear segments.=20 Low-level wind fields are expected to strengthen slightly this afternoon and evening ahead of the surface front, supporting effective-layer storm-relative helicity on the order of 100-200 m2/s2 for any supercell moving slightly south of east. Forecast soundings indicate that with time, continued moistening of the boundary layer will eventually lead to nearly saturated low-level profiles and extremely low LCLs. With ESRH on the order of 200 m2/s2 and very low LCLs, supercells (both isolated and in a line) as well as any linear segments will have the potential to produce tornadoes. Trends will be monitored this afternoon for indication of sustained, robust convection ahead of the surface front. If/when this occurs, a tornado threat may evolve and a tornado watch would likely be warranted. Convective trends will continue to be monitored. ...Marsh/Barnes/Bunting.. 10/28/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60htmPlzf-smcs8Ylv7sOyurn9_-SfVoI9oJmLQ5YpB6a8ytuimOmXo9uL_hYcdxZhXyBev6I= 6bbnhE76TJ-bvPJv0o$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30079471 30039497 29969522 29929540 29959559 30119577 30239581 30429571 30649555 31249510 31799474 32419421 32339297 31809275 30879305 30539358 30219434 30079471=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .