Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 28 2025 19:01:34

ACUS03 KWNS 281901
SWODY3
SPC AC 281900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur from eastern North Carolina into parts of
the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Severe potential appears low at this
time.

....Synopsis...

A compact upper cyclone within a large-scale upper trough across the
eastern U.S. will lift northeast along the Atlantic Seaboard on
Thursday. A coastal surface low, initially over VA, will deepen as
it likewise tracks northeast through the period. A narrow warm
sector will overlap portions of the Chesapeake Bay/southern
Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early afternoon. Strong deep-layer
southerly low-level flow is forecast and may support locally strong
gusts near coastal areas as the low deepens and lifts northeast.

Low-level thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain poor, with
very weak lapse rates. Additionally, forecast soundings show a warm
layer around 850 mb atop a cooler low-level boundary layer, further
limiting instability and downward momentum transport of stronger
winds near the 925-850 mb layer. While low-topped convection is
expected across the Mid-Atlantic, poor thermodynamics will preclude
severe potential.

...Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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