Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 28 2025 17:12:02

ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia
into northeast North Carolina.

....Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east
across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday.
Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature,
with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts
east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will
develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of
the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture
into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support
low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no
lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts
of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse
rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe
potential.

Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge
front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing
cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of
a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland
across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain
poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid
low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to
locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 2 update.

...Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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