Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 28 2025 07:59:52 FOUS30 KWBC 280759 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Day 1 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE=20 SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE=20 OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... Rainfall is expected to overspread the Tennessee/Ohio Valley with=20 anomalous low- level moisture transport driving east-southeast=20 moisture transport into the Southern/Central Appalachians as a closed upper low swivels from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. Much of this part of the country will experience beneficial moisture; however there will be embedded locations that have the potential for hourly rates of 1-1.5 inches/hour that could result in localized flash flooding. This is despite limited instability=20 (similar to Day 2 across the Mid- South), as the dynamics of the=20 closed low (notable PV anomaly with enhanced divergence aloft via=20 left exit region of ~130 kt jet streak @ 250 mb) may result in=20 localized 2" exceedance in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley (with terrain forcing primarily driving any localized 2" exceedance along/east=20 of the Southern/Central Appalachians). Campbell/Churchill Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 31 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE=20 SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST... The system mentioned for the day 2 period will continue to advance up the Eastern Seaboard directing widespread rain to the Northeast. Guidance is suggesting the highest rainfall accumulations will focus over northern New Jersey and southeast New York where WPC=20 has areal averages of 1.5-2.5 inches forecast for this period. This part of the region is where the best potential for reaching or=20 exceeding local FFG guidance so a Marginal Risk area remains in=20 effect for portions of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and=20 Connecticut. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4qQJhjQs8VNQftPz2UxPFmsm-ji9GJmQ1BYPb9ctZfZ2= kJL5WCO9eccpxkH_I3L_ko_FqC1HWjeSdUEdB487lzWsB5k$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4qQJhjQs8VNQftPz2UxPFmsm-ji9GJmQ1BYPb9ctZfZ2= kJL5WCO9eccpxkH_I3L_ko_FqC1HWjeSdUEdB4875bGlOB0$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4qQJhjQs8VNQftPz2UxPFmsm-ji9GJmQ1BYPb9ctZfZ2= kJL5WCO9eccpxkH_I3L_ko_FqC1HWjeSdUEdB487vHNgmOQ$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .