Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 28 2025 05:58:57

ACUS01 KWNS 280558
SWODY1
SPC AC 280557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from parts of the Sabine River Valley into
southeast Texas today.

....Sabine River Valley/Southeast Texas...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today. The exit region of an associated jet streak will overspread
the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across east Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain.
A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front with surface
dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place
during the day, moderate instability is likely to develop across
much of this airmass. Low-level convergence along and near the front
will likely result in thunderstorm development over the Ark-La-Tex
around midday. Additional storms are expected to form southwestward
into southeast Texas along and ahead of the front during the
afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across southeast Texas at 21Z have
MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This
would support an isolated supercell threat with cells that remain
discrete and that have access to the stronger instability. Any storm
that can exhibit supercell characteristics could be associated with
isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts, and a marginal
tornado threat.

...Broyles/Wendt.. 10/28/2025

$$

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