Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2186
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 27 2025 03:12:45

ACUS11 KWNS 270312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270311=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-270445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...coastal AL and western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270311Z - 270445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado is possible with potential intensification
of a transient supercell tracking along a quasi-stationary front.
Limited spatial extent and marginal nature of the tornado threat
will preclude a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Multiple transient circulations have occurred over the
past 2-3 hours with a slow-moving, but persistent updraft that has
evolved from near Dauphin Island across a part of Mobile Bay into
Baldwin County, AL. Each circulation attempt has eventually
broadened/diminished amid weakness in the 1-3 km portion of the
hodograph, per the MOB VWP, and poor tropospheric lapse rates
sampled in available 00Z RAOBs. Nevertheless, this updraft may track
eastward along the quasi-stationary front that extends overland
across Pensacola to Santa Rosa Island. Potential for brief
tornadogenesis may persist through about 06Z along this corridor.

...Grams/Hart.. 10/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4FgToCCl7wEhYgS2lYxEjp-_gfeXcc_kwbdZoCoj4W6r4IDP95qLuHpKvUldFxfsGXShiYk-m=
fX_2uT16UvZxdj5zxg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30518774 30558731 30568708 30418634 30278620 30308645
            30328695 30268768 30518774=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.