Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2187
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 27 2025 06:07:18

ACUS11 KWNS 270607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270606=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-270830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270606Z - 270830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized risk of brief tornadoes/waterpsouts will
continue through the early morning hours while spreading eastward
across the western Florida Panhandle. Given the localized and and
conditional nature of the risk, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a mesoscale
low/frontal wave over the far western FL Panhandle. A marine front
extends eastward across the remainder of the southern FL Panhandle
-- demarcating the northern bound of upper 60s to lower 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints. Ahead of the frontal wave, the EVX VWP is
sampling 35-kt east-southeasterly flow at 0.5 km AGL, which is
yielding a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (150-180 m2/s2 0-500
m SRH per EVX). As the frontal wave tracks eastward along the marine
front, a forced confluence zone/low-level warm-advection plume will
continue supporting thunderstorm development across the FL Panhandle
through the early morning hours. Given the implied enhanced
low-level streamwise vorticity and relatively moist boundary layer,
transient supercell structures will continue to pose a risk of brief
tornadoes/waterspouts. However, poor lapse rates and a very narrow
zone of surface-based effective-inflow-layer air should keep the
overall threat localized and conditional -- precluding the need for
a watch.

...Weinman/Smith.. 10/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4K8VSonpj7rG5qABjuMy5dZRhj4rfdQeKZ4f53TpOJfy2t4Bn6vQelcGqfS069Q8oswxCDqh-=
Z9n5cWTKyxtG0hM1WM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30128757 30548760 30668740 30748698 30708644 30588571
            30298534 30008541 29908579 30018684 30128757=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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