Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 26 2025 23:56:15 AWUS01 KWNH 262356 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-270549- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 755 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Corrected for amounts thus far in east-central FL Areas affected...Eastern FL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 262349Z - 270549Z Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Gulf Coast north towards the Space Coast. A threat for 3" an hour amounts and additional local totals to 6" exists/continues, which would be problematic in urban areas. Discussion...An upper level low near the MO Bootheel is moving east, along with the base of its attendant upper level trough across the central Gulf Coast. An additional shortwave is moving to the north of FL into the southernmost Appalachian Piedmont.=20 Downstream across Florida, diffluent flow exists, which has helped to sponsor thunderstorms with heavy rainfall which are increasing in coverage from the Gold Coast northward. A weak baroclinic zone across the central FL peninsula was acting as a reasonable convective focus earlier, but recent radar trends suggest that the coastline is becoming a better focus as CIN develops inland and winds weaken inland after sunset due to frictional convergence.=20 Precipitable water values are 1.5-2" across the state. Inflow at 850 hPa is out of the east-southeast while the flow aloft is westerly. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists which is helping to organize some convection, but not all, which appears to about to lead to cell collisions. The thunderstorm activity as a broad group should shift north and possibly offshore northeast FL over the next several hours as 850 hPa flow veers more to the southeast to south. The 18z HREF guidance appears to have a reasonable grasp on the current convective pattern. Thus far today, hourly amounts to 3" and local totals to 10" have occurred in east-central FL. Believe hourly amounts to 3" and additional local amounts to 7" are possible. These amounts would be problematic along the East Coast of the state, which led to a recent broadening of the Marginal and Slight Risk areas in the evening Excessive Rainfall Outlook.=20 Flash flooding is expected to be at least widely scattered in coverage. Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RRqNhRs5CLZzRZbOt3JS2A4damiKVzPADWhiDqYblGS-nEtnjHzg-jt43GBGOirN6bh= 55kGKxHuFiLsnqYkpmuYgQI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 31118134 28818054 27308000 26207994 26038037=20 27148064 28338126 29288163 30458190=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .