Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 26 2025 21:03:12

AWUS01 KWNH 262103
FFGMPD
FLZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast region into central portions of FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262100Z - 270300Z

Summary...Rainfall rates as high as 3"+/hr with slow moving
thunderstorms to result in short-term isolated totals of 5"+ with
localized flash flooding likely.

Discussion...Mid-level dry air has eroded sufficiently to allow
for deep convection to take root across portions of the central FL
Peninsula, becoming most robust along the eastern Space Coast
region where low-level convergence has become maximized along the
coast (with weaker, generally more progressive convection
extending well to the west along a weak surface front/thetaE
gradient). The mesoscale environment is characterized by PWs of
1.5-1.8" (already near the 90th percentile, and may increase to
beyond 2.0" locally with continued upscale growth of convection),
plentiful instability (SB CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kts (also near the 90th percentile, per XMR
sounding climatology).

Hi-res models trended quite wetter (and in surprisingly strong
agreement) with the 12z cycle, as both the HREF and REFS indicate
high odds of localized 5" exceedance through 03z (near 60% and 50%
respectively, per 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities).
This is near the corresponding 6-hr FFG threshold, though much of
these totals could occur in a 3-hr period or less (as evidenced by
estimated hourly rainfall near 3" from the first evident supercell
near the Space Coast Regional Airport, which is nearly stationary
in accordance with the bunkers right-mover vectors indicating
motions of 5 kts or less). Given this strong hi-res guidance
signal and recent observational trends, localized instances of
flash flooding are likely (and may be locally significant in
relatively low lying urbanized terrain with poor drainage).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_vIIAFNLjgdXNTMhbd1y_rT6ZamAyYMGqcKgE9sFIHRTR7ZttcM_Y6etTl8pQxx2NO3f=
trw-SU5qKo1h0zpR--pjDLM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29488163 29258104 28618048 28218076 28288150=20
            28598201 28998214=20

=3D =3D =3D
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