Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2183
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 26 2025 08:32:38

ACUS11 KWNS 260832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260832=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-261030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 260832Z - 261030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi for continued severe risk downstream of Tornado Watch
632. The need for another watch is uncertain, though convective
trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms have been struggling to organize/intensify as
they track eastward across southern LA and southern MS in Tornado
Watch 632. This is largely due to limited large-scale forcing for
ascent and the lack of a low-level mass response amid poor lapse
rates across the surface-based warm sector. Nevertheless, a
conditionally favorable environment remains in place for rotating
storms -- characterized by enlarged/clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs (per HDC VWP) and lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints.
This environment will continue shifting eastward across southeastern
LA and southern MS into the early morning hours. As a result, a
continued conditional risk of a tornado or locally damaging gusts is
being monitored. It is unclear if another watch will be needed,
though convective trends are being monitored.

...Weinman/Smith.. 10/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2zBkuxUTO5cLfNoztPy3f_lbj8XIVw1Euo5xr2eyinPidnBxXKIJ6XeZAm983xeh0JSiYw5k=
udjhdjfmhJX2x9vRGw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30209067 31369049 31559014 31508958 31398926 31018897
            30298903 29688947 29509036 29769064 30209067=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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