Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2178
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 25 2025 10:47:59

ACUS11 KWNS 251047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251047=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-251215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 251047Z - 251215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...An MCS will continue eastward across far southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana this morning, posing a risk of damaging
winds in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631. A local extension of the
watch (spatially and temporally) may be warranted.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS continues tracking eastward
at around 35 kt across far southeast TX toward southwest LA this
morning. Recent VWP data from KHGX sampled a 45-kt rear-inflow jet,
and several severe-wind reports have been associated with the line.
As this activity continues eastward into southwest LA, upper 60s to
lower 70s dewpoints, modest low-level warm advection (evident in LCH
VWP data), and around 40 kt of line-orthogonal deep-layer shear
should support its maintenance. The primary concern continues to be
damaging wind gusts, though a brief embedded/mesovortex tornado also
remains possible -- given sufficient low-level shear and the rich
boundary-layer moisture. As such, a local spatial and temporal
extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 may be warranted, to
include Jefferson Davis, Acadia, and Vermilion Parishes until 13Z or
14Z.

...Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4RWrkYaq7S4P6OZW2TFmiESyGs1lG4bGra4iyArt6NOtQHBGT0GDKm8tegh9-9W0JsMPhAjmu=
wKCJShMF4H_Pn_8LKM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29479219 29579428 29769436 30569418 30739393 30629324
            30159209 29829196 29479219=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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