Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2176
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 25 2025 05:56:57

ACUS11 KWNS 250556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250556=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-250730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 250556Z - 250730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading east-southeastward
to the Texas Coast through the early morning hours. Damaging winds
gusts are the main concern, though a brief/embedded tornado cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KEWX shows an MCS tracking
east-southeastward at around 40 kt across parts of south-central TX.
While the leading-line updrafts have decreased in intensity over the
last hour or so, the well-established cold pool and moist
pre-convective air mass continues to support embedded damaging wind
gusts -- especially with any embedded mesovortex structures (i.e.,
north/south-oriented portions of the line) in the near term.=20

With time, the MCS will continue tracking east-southeastward to the
TX Coast through the early morning hours. Around 40 kt of
line-orthogonal effective shear and a moist/moderately unstable
downstream air mass will continue to support a risk of damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado risk -- aided by a
modest/gradually strengthening low-level jet and related low-level
hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be issued within the hour
for parts of the area.

...Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_maBnV-OIT-sB3kJX9FTJ6QOcxWEYta2mfutBMVeyYiWaTnKgeLzo0YlpqsSZwq4TQxt826-D=
DFRSuRwSZ2fRt8J4So$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29359768 29879737 30559618 30809487 30649392 30279375
            29749378 28649542 28439625 28609691 28889744 29359768=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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