Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2171
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 24 2025 23:00:25

ACUS11 KWNS 242300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242300=20
TXZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...North Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629...

Valid 242300Z - 250030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629
continues.

SUMMARY...A locally greater tornado threat is evident near two
surface boundaries in North Texas.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a warm front near the Red
River and a differential heating boundary farther south, roughly
east-west through the DFW metroplex. With a continued increase in
mid-level ascent, a few storms have been able to intensify ahead of
a large area of stratiform rain in the Rolling Plains. The storm in
Palo Pinto County has shown the most organization and modest
low-level rotation over the last 30 minutes. The KFWS VAD does show
amply low-level hodograph curvature near the differential heating
zone. As long as storms remain discrete, there will be a locally
higher tornado potential near these surface boundaries.

...Wendt.. 10/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41TaneW7HvFShqaUarsP26Dda0l0UeWa9X8K3_Q2uFPNysjKvPyXFYgIpuMBPquUuGmLTMWQ_=
hW4Ggn613Wa9NBzMHY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32489847 32629853 32899846 33639798 33819778 33789742
            33739727 33459730 32829744 32659757 32409777 32379801
            32489847=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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