Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2168
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 24 2025 18:05:12

ACUS11 KWNS 241804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241804=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-242030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241804Z - 242030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the region,
a few of which may eventually pose a risk for severe hail/wind.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows an expansive area of cloud
cover overspreading the region, limiting insolation, with some
pockets of clear skies remaining. This, along with low-level
warm-air advection, has allowed surface temperatures to warm into
the upper 60s F to near 70 F, amid seasonally rich low-level
moisture, characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the low
60s F. Broad ascent associated with an approaching mid-level trough
and cooling temperatures aloft, in combination with the
aforementioned low-level thermodynamics, is resulting in
destabilization across the region, with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1500
J/kg. Consequently, deepening convection is beginning to take shape,
with a few more robust cells evident in regional radar.

These trends are expected to continue into the early afternoon,
perhaps eventually yielding MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, particularly in
areas closer to the approaching upper trough across portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Effective bulk shear near 40 kt should promote at
least some storm organization, with severe hail/wind possible with
the strongest cells. However, coverage of severe storms remains
quite uncertain at the present time. Thus, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance this
afternoon.

...Karstens/Leitman.. 10/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-9hrFRUntA6XW5pEJ1cdfJXkhI1If2wnUdDi8J5jD0IijFNJDfsjvL2lkzHxALzTwCsjM-pHp=
koVOjNMlyBcq0w_qZo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34710132 34470214 34660263 35770233 36520086 36699988
            36529873 35479836 34829864 34740016 34710132=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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