Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2163
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 23 2025 19:04:13

ACUS11 KWNS 231904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231903=20
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Areas affected...The Four Corners region into northern New Mexico
and southern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231903Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Instances of isolated hail and severe winds will be
possible as thunderstorms continue to develop through early evening.
Watch issuance is not expected given the modest convective
environment.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a slight uptick in convective
intensity has been noted across the Four Corners and northern NM in
GOES imagery and MRMS vertically integrated ice data. This
intensification is likely the result of steadily increasing MLCAPE
as temperatures warm into the low/mid 60s under a pocket of cold
temperatures aloft (-15 to -20 C at around 500 mb). Further heating
through the late afternoon will promote additional convective
development and the potential further intensification of ongoing
storms, though very limited moisture will modulate overall buoyancy
values with MLCAPE expected to peak at around 500-750 J/kg. Despite
marginal buoyancy, 40-50 knot mid-level flow has recently been
sampled by regional VWPs ahead of the vorticity maximum, which
should provide adequate shear through the CAPE-bearing layer for
somewhat organized/persistent convection with an accompanying threat
for hail (most likely between 0.5 to 1.25 inches in diameter).
Low-level lapse rates have increased to around 8 C/km where surface
heating has been strongest (primarily over north-central NM), which
may support a few stronger wind gusts with the more intense
convective cores through late afternoon. While a few instances of
hail/severe winds are possible, the modest thermodynamic environment
should act to limit the coverage of strong/severe storms.

...Moore/Mosier.. 10/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6TeERJU80X00sHXsxyEnUPSBSnD8Jb9ZzXLEYv_Nrqgh67d1NVKRnnkCIzhaw908J3GSJF-xr=
DxMDexjH2vjfGzQEa4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

LAT...LON   38080923 38110852 38110736 38060662 37900591 37660546
            37300516 36720499 36160503 35410515 34650556 34270609
            34210647 34340673 35150708 35460721 35630750 36550868
            36770948 36850989 37051021 37451016 37810978 38080923=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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