Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 23 2025 17:24:12 ACUS02 KWNS 231724 SWODY2 SPC AC 231722 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST/CENTRAL TX... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon Friday into Friday night across west and central Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ....Synopsis.. A broad, positive-tilt mid/upper trough consisting of multiple embedded impulses will gradually progress east from the Southwest onto the southern Great Plains. The piecemeal nature of the trough will support only weak/disjointed surface low reflections that should similarly slowly shift from west to central TX. Still, an upper-level jet translating through the base of the trough across northern Mexico will foster favorable large-scale ascent shifting east over TX from Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. ....TX... Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z Friday across KS/OK, with more isolated/diminishing storms trailing southwestward into parts of west TX. Differential boundary-layer heating in the wake of this morning activity should support a wavy baroclinic zone across the southern TX Panhandle eastward along the Red River vicinity. A plume of moderate MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should become established to the south of the effective front through the Trans-Pecos ahead of the dryline. Timing of strengthening large-scale ascent in the afternoon is somewhat nebulous, but guidance consensus suggests scattered thunderstorms should form early and become widespread late. A moderately favorable combination of steepened mid-level lapse rates and southwesterly flow will support supercells, most likely across the Trans-Pecos into the Low Rolling Plains. An amalgamation of numerous interacting updrafts should yield a large MCS by evening. This MCS should persist through Friday night into early morning Saturday as it moves into central and eventually east TX. The overall threat area will become more narrow overnight, but isolated severe will remain possible. Large hail should be more prevalent during the initial storm development across west TX, but will remain possible through the period. Broad, low-probability tornado potential will exist across much of the warm sector/baroclinic zone, with greater chances across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Severe gusts/damaging winds should maximize as the MCS matures across west into central TX. ...Grams.. 10/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .