Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 23 2025 09:00:48

ACUS48 KWNS 230900
SWOD48
SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The upper trough over East TX is forecast to weaken as it moves over
the lower MS Valley late this weekend and into early next week.This
system will merge with several weaker perturbations over the eastern
US as a second trough and strong zonal jet are forecast to move out
of the Rockies and into the Plains. Mid-level ridging is expected to
develop across the Great Lakes and Southwest early next week. This
will likely result in blocked and split mid-level flow before deeper
troughing consolidates over the eastern half of the CONUS. As the
western ridging builds, flow aloft will trend more northwesterly,
suppressing overall amplification of the Plains trough.

Isolated severe potential remains possible D4/Sunday and D5/Monday
over parts of the southern Plains and the ArkLaMiss where remnant
moisture should intersect with enhanced flow aloft. However, poor
lapse rates and several rounds of proceeding storms lends low
confidence to specific hazards or spatial coverage.

Through the remainder of next week, broad eastern US troughing will
persist with strong northwesterly flow aloft over the western and
central US. A strong cold front will develop and sweep eastward
midweek, with surface high pressure developing in its wake. This
will likely keep substantial moisture return and resulting buoyancy
subdued for the foreseeable future.

...Lyons.. 10/23/2025

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