Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 22 2025 19:54:44 ACUS01 KWNS 221954 SWODY1 SPC AC 221953 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ....20Z Update... The primary change made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim thunderstorm probabilities across portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin and the Northeast, where the progression of upper troughs are shunting scant buoyancy northeastward, away from the aforementioned regions, reducing thunderstorm potential. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ...Squitieri.. 10/22/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025/ ....Synopsis and Discussion... Current satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones over North America, a more broad cyclone centered over the Great Lakes/southeastern Ontario and another more compact cyclone farther west just off the central/southern CA Coast. Surface analysis reveals a pair of lows associated with the Great Lakes cyclone: an occluded low beneath the primary cyclone over Lake Huron and another triple-point low farther east over the coast of southern ME. Continued northeastward progression of this system, including the coastal ME surface low, will continue to push the warm sector farther offshore, limiting any severe potential. Lightning is still possible within the warm-air advection showers throughout the afternoon, with the highest coverage across Downeast ME. Isolated lightning is also still possible across New England where continued forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support deeper updrafts. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible over and in close proximity to the Lower Great Lakes, where warm lake temperatures locally steepen the low-level lapse rates. Farther west, the cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is expected to progress eastward across central CA and far southern NV during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this cyclone from central CA into the Great Basin and AZ. Increasing low to mid-level moisture and decreasing mid-level temperatures downstream of this cyclone will support continued thunderstorms downstream into the Four Corners and western NM. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .