Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 22 2025 19:24:41

ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TX...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible, centered on west
to central Texas, from mid-afternoon Friday into Friday night.

....Synopsis...
A pair of impulses, embedded within a positive-tilt shortwave trough
from southwest CO to the northern Gulf of CA, should gradually move
east and become centered over the southern High Plains by early
Saturday. An upper-level jetlet attendant to the basal impulse will
shift across northern Mexico, supporting strengthening large-scale
ascent across west TX on Friday evening/night.

....TX vicinity...
Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z
Friday from the Red River Valley into KS, with more
isolated/diminishing activity trailing southwestward into parts of
west TX. This early-day activity will aid in reinforcing the surface
baroclinic zone near the Red River. Adequate boundary-layer heating
will occur to its south through west, fostering a broad plume of
moderate buoyancy after another day of low-level moisture
enrichment. Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid to late
afternoon along the western extent of this plume from the TX
Panhandle towards the Pecos Valley/Trans-Pecos. This activity will
become increasingly widespread during the evening into Friday night
as the aforementioned large-scale ascent strengthens.

The most probable corridor for supercells with large hail appears to
be across the southern portion of west TX where moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear are anticipated. Multiple
convectively parameterized models along with available CAMs strongly
suggest upscale growth into a large MCS should occur across the
Edwards Plateau to Big Country vicinity on Friday night. This should
support at least an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail threat
persisting into the early morning Saturday towards central TX.

...Grams.. 10/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.