Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 22 2025 17:29:42 ACUS02 KWNS 221729 SWODY2 SPC AC 221727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/NM/OK/TX... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night across parts of the southern Great Plains and the Southwest. ....Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will reach the Four Corners vicinity before stalling early Friday, as a separate impulse moves across northern Baja/Gulf of CA. This will reinforce a positive-tilt orientation to the broader trough and support only a weak surface cyclone across NM into far west TX. ....TX Trans-Pecos to central OK... While the overall synoptic pattern appears consistently forecast, much spread exists across guidance with the degree of boundary-layer moisture return northwestward from the TX Coastal Plain by late afternoon/early evening Thursday. The more aggressive spectrum would support potential for a couple mesoscale corridors of greater severe hail probabilities, one in the TX South Plains and the other in the south-central OK vicinity. A few surface-based supercells may develop in both regimes, despite the presence of mid-level ridging in OK early and greater mid-level height falls occurring Thursday night. The less aggressive/drier spectrum of guidance suggests surface-based activity may be high-based with transient/weak supercell structures evolving into a predominately messy cluster mode, especially as elevated convective coverage increases greatly with a strengthening low-level jet. A broad level 1-MRGL risk appears to be the appropriate forecast at this time focused along the convectively reinforced front from the Permian Basin to central OK from late afternoon into Thursday night. ....Southern CO to central NM... The lobe of strong large-ascent attendant to the compact shortwave trough will overspread the Four Corners by midday, supporting widespread afternoon thunderstorms downstream across southern CO into northern NM. The mid-level speed max attendant to the trough will be centered farther southeast across central NM. While buoyancy will be weak, steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough will support a corridor of favorable destabilization coincident with at least moderate effective bulk shear. A few lower-end intensity supercells should develop with marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts as the primary threats. ...Grams.. 10/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .