Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 20 2025 12:54:14

ACUS01 KWNS 201254
SWODY1
SPC AC 201252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe thunderstorm risk is low today.

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level
trough quickly moving east-northeast across the Lower Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic states.  This upper feature will move into New
England later today.  A band of showers and low-topped convection
are located east of a front forecast to push east through much of
the Northeast through the late afternoon.  A moist airmass with weak
instability was sampled by the 12 UTC ALB and OKX raobs (500-750
J/kg MUCAPE).  However, current observations and short-term model
guidance suggest a very limited spatiotemporal window for deeper
convection to develop this morning. Although the risk for localized
strong gusts cannot be ruled out, a meaningful risk of severe wind
appears too low with this activity.

Across southern Florida, trailing cold front will stall across the
southern Peninsula. This boundary may serve as the focus for weak
convection as PW values remain seasonally high with adequate
buoyancy for deep updrafts.

...Smith/Bentley.. 10/20/2025

$$

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