Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 20 2025 05:27:44

ACUS01 KWNS 200527
SWODY1
SPC AC 200525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storm risk is low today.

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not look particularly favorable for severe
thunderstorms across the CONUS today. Even so, one notable trough
will eject across New England and this feature is expected to aid a
narrow band of frontal convection within a strongly sheared
environment. Early this morning, lower-mid 50s surface dew points
had spread across much of southern and coastal New England.
Boundary-layer moisture should gradually increase through sunrise
ahead of the cold front such that weak instability is expected to
evolve within a poor lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings
suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, but surface-based parcels will
struggle to be buoyant except right near the wind shift. With 180dm
height falls expected ahead of the trough, a forced line of
low-topped convection is expected. At this time it appears
instability will be a bit too low to warrant a meaningful risk of
severe wind with this activity.

Across southern Florida, trailing cold front will stall across the
southern Peninsula. This boundary may serve as the focus for weak
convection as PW values remain seasonally high with adequate
buoyancy for deep updrafts.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 10/20/2025

$$

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