Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 20 2025 00:41:12

ACUS01 KWNS 200041
SWODY1
SPC AC 200039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Low-topped convection, with minimal to no lightning flashes, may
produce isolated strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak
tornado across the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

....Mid-Atlantic...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough
advancing across the OH/TN Valley region. 100kt 500mb speed max is
forecast to translate across NC to near the southern NJ coast by
20/12z as 180dm height falls overspread the Mid-Atlantic tonight.
Strongly forced convective line is currently observed along the cold
front, arcing from central PA-central VA-western NC. This line will
surge off the Mid-Atlantic coast after midnight along with the risk
for gusty winds. 00z sounding from IAD exhibited modest 0-3km lapse
rates, but negligible instability and a strongly sheared
environment. Lightning may struggle to develop with this low-topped
convection, but some risk for damaging winds remains, along with
perhaps a brief/weak tornado.

...Darrow.. 10/20/2025

$$

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