Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 20 2025 00:06:09

FOUS30 KWBC 200005
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Oct 20 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND...

An occluding low pressure system and trailing cold front will
continue east across portions of the Northeast/New England Monday.
The fast moving front is expected to clear the region by the early
morning hours on Tuesday. A strong (40-50 kt) southerly 850 mb jet
will enhance moisture flux (pwat values ~2 standard deviations
above the mean) from the Atlantic ahead of the front and help
support the continued maintenance and development of a line of
heavy rain-producing thunderstorms throughout the day. The latest
hi-res guidance shows the potential for locally heavy amounts of
2-3", especially along the White Mountains from New Hampshire into
Maine. However, the hi-res guidance and HREF probabilities show a
more limited potential for totals exceeding 3", likely due to the
progressive nature of the front, which should keep the risk for
flash flooding isolated. The noted corridor along the upslope
terrain of the White Mountains would be the area to monitor for a
locally higher risk for flash flooding if confidence grows in the
potential for heavier rainfall totals.

Putnam


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 22 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Putnam


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7b9gOfae4ADY4GariFx2v4x2CkUGzfCI2J_e4NGSk9tC=
z0SF1Oedhj3XB8aMhWAZVcg03r3zUmW1ufkDtZC-iIFi2eo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7b9gOfae4ADY4GariFx2v4x2CkUGzfCI2J_e4NGSk9tC=
z0SF1Oedhj3XB8aMhWAZVcg03r3zUmW1ufkDtZC-dEFY7-s$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7b9gOfae4ADY4GariFx2v4x2CkUGzfCI2J_e4NGSk9tC=
z0SF1Oedhj3XB8aMhWAZVcg03r3zUmW1ufkDtZC-12agBwA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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