Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2161
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 23:59:45

ACUS11 KWNS 192359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192359=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-200230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Areas affected...Central PA into parts of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192359Z - 200230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts are possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped rain bands are ongoing this evening
from central PA into parts of the Mid Atlantic, along and just ahead
of an eastward-moving cold front. Buoyancy is very weak to
negligible (with SBCAPE of around 100-200 J/kg or less) and no
lightning is being produced with these bands, but strong ascent
related to a vigorous mid/upper-level trough approaching the region
will sustain this activity through the evening, with some
consolidation possible along the cold front. Peak wind gusts have
generally been in the 40-50 mph range, but with flow increasing into
the 35-50 kt range within the 1-3 km AGL layer (as sampled by
regional VWPs), isolated damaging gusts will be possible within the
weakly convective rain bands as they approach the Mid Atlantic
region.

...Dean/Guyer.. 10/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6NsTdz-G_NJD7M_qjZ_dhuV937MORY9btfMgezquw3bl5lQiY8PUTyuYWiQxdJJ8bArM10xHF=
SEBEwJ3YlLCw9RfE48$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37757677 36977738 36587799 36307902 36338003 36887951
            38027840 39997754 41137796 41297719 41037644 40437630
            39887631 39017644 37757677=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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