Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2160
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 20:26:41

ACUS11 KWNS 192026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192025=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-192300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern West Virginia...adjacent portions
of Maryland...and western Virginia into northwestern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192025Z - 192300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A band of showers may continue to be accompanied by brief,
localized damaging wind gusts while spreading across and east of the
Blue Ridge through 7-8 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Amplified, deep troughing, from the surface through the
troposphere, and associated strong ambient wind fields, are in the
process of overspreading much of the Lower Great Lakes and
Appalachians vicinity.  Within this regime, near/just ahead of the
trough axis, a narrow band of convection with heavier showers is
being supported by strong forcing for ascent aided by low-level
frontogenesis.  This is forecast to continue spreading east of the
crest of the Appalachians, across and east of the Blue Ridge through
23-00Z.

Based on forecast soundings, very weak boundary-layer based CAPE
contributing to this activity is being supported by surface dew
points increasing through the 50s F, but this generally capped
around or below 500 mb.   While relatively warm equilibrium
temperatures suggest that potential for charge separation supportive
of lightning is rather low, downward mixing of 40-50+ kt ambient
southwesterly mean flow in the lowest 3-6 km AGL, within the heavier
rain band, could continue to support brief, localized damaging wind
gusts with its passage.

...Kerr/Thompson.. 10/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Ei4RWBtcxrrwhrE_tFEJMtHZLvZM5ClauGYY-_8PHbkaT94TMHcptQEwQ3LSOxSF_tISiW0H=
SZOftdm_mg47HSo6IE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...

LAT...LON   39147936 39737874 39507757 38117820 36277982 35938100
            36168145 37058066 38367982 38877950 39147936=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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