Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 19:53:40 FOUS30 KWBC 191953 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sun Oct 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Pre-frontal convection moving through the Ohio Valley/Interior Northeast as well as along the Gulf Coast will contain rainfall rates that will briefly exceed 1"/hr. However, the progressive nature of these cells will limit total rainfall, and FFG exceedance probabilities are minimal. Putnam/Weiss Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS INTERIOR=20 NEW ENGLAND... An occluding low pressure system and trailing cold front will continue east across portions of the Northeast/New England Monday. The fast moving front is expected to clear the region by the early morning hours on Tuesday. A strong (40-50 kt) southerly 850 mb jet will enhance moisture flux (pwat values ~2 standard deviations above the mean) from the Atlantic ahead of the front and help=20 support the continued maintenance and development of a line of=20 heavy rain-producing thunderstorms throughout the day. The latest=20 hi-res guidance shows the potential for locally heavy amounts of=20 2-3", especially along the White Mountains from New Hampshire into=20 Maine. However, the hi-res guidance and HREF probabilities show a=20 more limited potential for totals exceeding 3", likely due to the=20 progressive nature of the front, which should keep the risk for=20 flash flooding isolated. The noted corridor along the upslope=20 terrain of the White Mountains would be the area to monitor for a=20 locally higher risk for flash flooding if confidence grows in the=20 potential for heavier rainfall totals. Putnam Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 22 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Putnam Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9kWR_JP1h5EoFyyFqQF0JlPuoEN8ICgeV3Vi7QxL-n5C= VEmGrDpiZGVNHYCC2mF5g1heFTbUegf3ZamaBwNro2P4DzM$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9kWR_JP1h5EoFyyFqQF0JlPuoEN8ICgeV3Vi7QxL-n5C= VEmGrDpiZGVNHYCC2mF5g1heFTbUegf3ZamaBwNrJ3wHVdI$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9kWR_JP1h5EoFyyFqQF0JlPuoEN8ICgeV3Vi7QxL-n5C= VEmGrDpiZGVNHYCC2mF5g1heFTbUegf3ZamaBwNrrBQ5bzU$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .