Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 16:24:41 ACUS01 KWNS 191624 SWODY1 SPC AC 191623 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes may produce occasional strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado, this afternoon into the Appalachians and tonight into the Mid-Atlantic. The isolated severe-storm threat along the northeast Gulf coast will diminish by mid-late afternoon. ....Appalachians this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic tonight... A sharp midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt jet will progress from TN/KY late this morning to the Mid-Atlantic region by early Monday morning. An associated surface cyclone is in the process of occluding just north of Lake Superior, while a trailing cold front continues eastward across the upper OH Valley/Appalachians today and reaches the Atlantic coast/southern New England overnight. A narrow band of shallow convection/enhanced reflectivity coincides with the front/wind shift from eastern KY into OH as of 16z. West of the surface wind shift, low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes continues with the primary midlevel vorticity max/left-exit region of the jet across central KY/middle TN. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the depth of the frontal convection will be marginal for charge separation and lightning production. Still, there will be some potential for downward momentum transfer of ~50 kt low-midlevel flow and isolated wind damage with the consolidated convective band this afternoon from eastern OH/KY and WV eastward into the Appalachians, and overnight into the Mid-Atlantic. ....Northeast Gulf coast this afternoon... The remnants of early morning convection persist near and south of the FL Panhandle in association with a pre-frontal wind shift and a weakening southern stream shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent is expected to weaken through the afternoon and substantial inland destabilization is unlikely given widespread clouds and weakening southerly flow components with time. Thus, any remaining severe threat will be confined to the coast and will likely end later this afternoon. ....WA coast today... A midlevel trough with associated cold air aloft and steep low-midlevel lapse rates is spreading inland. A few low-topped thunderstorms have been observed this morning along the WA coast, and a few additional storms will be possible for the next 6 hours or so. Vertical shear is sufficiently strong for some storm organization, but the odds of sustained supercells appear too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities. ...Thompson/Supinie.. 10/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .