Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2159
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 12:43:11

ACUS11 KWNS 191243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191242=20
INZ000-KYZ000-191415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Indiana and far northern Kentucky.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191242Z - 191415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this morning
across southwest Indiana and far northern Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...A focused area of ascent in the left-exit region of the
upper jet and on the leading edge of the mid-level vorticity maximum
has resulted in some stronger/fast-moving convection across southern
Illinois this morning. A few estimated 60 mph wind gusts and a
measured 62 mph wind gust have been associated with this cluster of
storms thus far. While downstream instability remains weak (100-200
J/kg MUCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis), the strong forcing should
continue to support an isolated damaging wind threat as this cluster
of storms moves across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky
this morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected.

...Bentley/Smith.. 10/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_BBA1lrMoxrEQU85ThcGhT6f8DJJMU7hwPL6RqymKnTOQtX3j2X2WmKf-S_Qvegh-YQ04PqKE=
0Au4286_w8L9r6Vi_I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37698742 37988745 38228750 38368764 38548762 38778744
            38938693 38968644 38968611 38768591 38418586 37998600
            37628655 37478708 37698742=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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