Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 08:54:40

ACUS48 KWNS 190854
SWOD48
SPC AC 190853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
In the wake of the strong upper low over the eastern US,
thunderstorm  chances will be temporarily muted across the central
and eastern US with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting
available instability. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late
D4/Wed over parts of the Southwest ahead of a southern stream
shortwave trough moving onshore from the eastern Pacific. However,
moisture and buoyancy should be quite sparse, suggesting only
isolated coverage and negligible severe risk.

....Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley D5-D8...
The shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to move into the
southern Plains as high pressure over the eastern US settles along
the Gulf Coast. As the trough crosses the Rockies, a lee low should
develop, allowing for modest low-level moisture return over parts of
the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. Cooling mid-level
temperatures and moistening of the airmass over TX/OK should support
increasing thunderstorm chances through the end of the week, with
thunderstorm potential extending into the ArkLaTex and lower MS
Valley next weekend.

Some severe potential is apparent as westerly flow aloft increases
amidst the returning moisture/instability. However, details such as
the degree of destabilization, timing/structure of the upper trough,
and the potential for organized storms remains highly uncertain. 15%
severe probabilities could be introduced in future outlook cycles
should confidence in organized severe potential increase.

...Lyons.. 10/19/2025

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