Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2156
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 01:59:37

ACUS11 KWNS 190159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190159=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-190400-

Mesoscale Discussion 2156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 627...

Valid 190159Z - 190400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 627 continues.

SUMMARY...Organized strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across
the northern two-thirds of ww627 over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Diffluent high-level flow is spreading across the Mid
South/lower MS Valley ahead of approaching short-wave trough. Over
the last few hours, large-scale ascent appears to be encouraging a
broadening corridor of convection across western MS into northeast
LA. LLJ is also increasing ahead of the short wave with 1km speeds
in excess of 35kt as far south as central MS. VAD Profile from DGX
supports this with 0-3km SRH around 250 m2/s2. The primary storm
mode should remain QLCS, but a few isolated supercells are currently
lifting northeast just ahead of the line into central portions of
the watch. While buoyancy is somewhat limited over eastern portions
of the state, some increase in buoyancy is expected immediately
ahead of this convective complex. Greatest short-term risk appears
to be across central portions of ww627.

...Darrow.. 10/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_-SSx8As1kfaPZQFR9jIh3BcmV3jnivBwauni_E7OUh0ecj0cE1T2KstgQQ0nscSlM5-MsLqj=
i4v3trOgP8oAwWacxg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32409185 33169096 33949024 33698935 32468993 31909119
            32409185=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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